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中國(guó)石化新聞網(wǎng)訊 據(jù)油價(jià)網(wǎng)5月28日?qǐng)?bào)道，最近幾周，由于發(fā)電和工業(yè)對(duì)天然氣的需求疲軟，導(dǎo)致歐洲天然氣價(jià)格大幅下降，歐洲貿(mào)易商和行業(yè)人士不排除今年夏天歐洲一些市場(chǎng)的天然氣價(jià)格可能會(huì)短暫跌至零以下的可能性。

暖冬結(jié)束時(shí)充足的庫(kù)存、穩(wěn)定的液化天然氣進(jìn)口以及疲軟的需求，導(dǎo)致歐洲基準(zhǔn)天然氣價(jià)格連續(xù)8周下跌，這是6年多來(lái)最長(zhǎng)的單周下跌。

在德國(guó)埃森舉行的E-World能源博覽會(huì)上，貿(mào)易商和行業(yè)人士告訴彭博社，雖然基準(zhǔn)價(jià)格不太可能降至零以下，但如果需求持續(xù)疲軟，可再生能源發(fā)電量保持高位，今年夏天歐洲一些地區(qū)的天然氣價(jià)格可能會(huì)短暫低于零。

挪威能源巨頭Equinor負(fù)責(zé)天然氣交易和優(yōu)化的副總裁Peder Bjorland在接受彭博社采訪時(shí)表示，“當(dāng)你擁有可再生能源生產(chǎn)時(shí)，歐洲個(gè)別地區(qū)的天然氣市場(chǎng)可能會(huì)出現(xiàn)負(fù)值；從我們現(xiàn)在看到的價(jià)格水平到個(gè)位數(shù)和負(fù)值還有相當(dāng)大的距離，這條路上可能會(huì)發(fā)生很多事情”。

歐洲天然氣交易基準(zhǔn)TTF中心的即月期貨周四暴跌10%，收于每兆瓦時(shí)26.78美元(24.94歐元)，這是自2021年秋季能源危機(jī)開始以來(lái)的最低價(jià)格。

歐洲天然氣價(jià)格的價(jià)格趨勢(shì)與去年形成了鮮明對(duì)比。去年8月，由于削減了管道供應(yīng)，政府和行業(yè)對(duì)冬季潛在的天然氣短缺感到恐慌，基準(zhǔn)價(jià)格飆升至每兆瓦時(shí)322美元（300歐元）。

由于冬季天氣溫和，歐盟層面的消費(fèi)減少，以及高能源成本對(duì)工業(yè)的需求破壞，歐洲度過(guò)了2022/2023年的冬天，沒(méi)有出現(xiàn)天然氣短缺或天然氣限購(gòu)。

每年這個(gè)時(shí)候的天然氣庫(kù)存都很高。根據(jù)歐洲天然氣基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施公司的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，到5月24日，歐盟的天然氣儲(chǔ)存點(diǎn)66.71%已滿。目前天然氣儲(chǔ)存水平是至少十年來(lái)年均最高水平。

分析師告訴彭博社，歐洲最早可能在9月填滿庫(kù)存，遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)早于冬季。

冬季供暖季結(jié)束、夏季電力需求高峰尚未到來(lái)之前，目前歐洲的天然氣需求現(xiàn)在很疲軟。去年秋冬兩季經(jīng)歷了非常艱難時(shí)期的工業(yè)天然氣消費(fèi)也很疲軟。

據(jù)分析師表示，盡管天然氣價(jià)格下跌，但工業(yè)燃料消耗量并沒(méi)有上升，盡管大型工業(yè)能源消費(fèi)者可能會(huì)等待天然氣價(jià)格的進(jìn)一步下跌。

高盛(Goldman Sachs)本周早些時(shí)候表示，隨著更多發(fā)電廠可能從煤炭轉(zhuǎn)向天然氣，價(jià)格進(jìn)一步下跌可能會(huì)讓價(jià)格慢慢企穩(wěn)。

高盛分析師在彭博社的一份報(bào)告中寫道，在工業(yè)需求和亞洲液化天然氣進(jìn)口開始明顯改善之前，這一替代過(guò)程可以作為天然氣價(jià)格的臨時(shí)下限，“在我們看來(lái)，這最終將使天然氣價(jià)格在夏末走高”。

歐洲天然氣價(jià)格的近期前景看起來(lái)很悲觀。但如果夏季熱浪帶來(lái)的低風(fēng)速可能會(huì)削弱風(fēng)力發(fā)電，那么需求可能會(huì)迅速轉(zhuǎn)變。如果價(jià)格繼續(xù)下跌，工業(yè)客戶也可能開始使用更多的天然氣，最終支撐價(jià)格。亞洲對(duì)液化天然氣需求的復(fù)蘇也可能導(dǎo)致歐洲價(jià)格上漲，因?yàn)闅W洲將不得不與亞洲競(jìng)爭(zhēng)現(xiàn)貨貨物。

郝芬 譯自 油價(jià)網(wǎng)

原文如下：

Natural Gas Prices Could Fall Below Zero In Parts Of Europe

As tepid demand for gas from power generation and industry has sent European natural gas prices into a freefall in recent weeks, traders and industry officials are not ruling out the possibility that Europe may see a brief dip to below zero for day-ahead prices in some markets this summer.

The combination of ample inventories at the end of a mild winter, steady imports of LNG, and weak demand has led to eight consecutive weeks of weekly losses in European benchmark natural gas prices, the longest weekly losing streak in more than six years.  

While the benchmark price is unlikely to drop below zero, some regional day-ahead natural gas prices in Europe could see sub-zero prices briefly this summer, if demand remains weak and renewable power generation holds high, traders and industry officials at the E-World energy fair in Essen, Germany, told Bloomberg.

“Individual regional gas markets in Europe could go negative when you have hours and days with renewable production,” Peder Bjorland, vice president for gas trading and optimization at Norway’s energy giant Equinor, told Bloomberg.

“There is quite a big distance from the price level we see now and to the single-digit and negative prices, and a lot can happen on that route,” Bjorland added.

The front-month futures at the TTF hub, the benchmark for Europe’s gas trading, crashed by 10% on Thursday to settle at $26.78 (24.94 euros) per megawatt-hour (MWh), the lowest price since the start of the energy crisis in the autumn of 2021.  

The price trend in European natural gas prices is in stark contrast with last year, when benchmark prices soared to as much as $322 (300 euros) per MWh in August, after it slashed supply via pipelines and governments and industry were spooked by potential gas shortages in the winter.

Thanks to milder winter weather, reduced consumption on EU level, and demand destruction in industry from the high energy costs, Europe made it through the 2022/2023 winter without gas shortages or gas rationing.

Currently, gas inventories are comfortably high for this time of the year. As of May 24, natural gas storage sites in the EU were 66.71% full, according to data from Gas Infrastructure Europe. The level of gas in storage is the highest for this time of the year in at least a decade.

Europe could fill up inventories as early as September, well ahead of the winter, analysts have told Bloomberg. 

Demand for natural gas in Europe is now weak after the winter heating season ended and peak summer power demand is yet to begin. Gas consumption from industry, which went through a very rough patch last autumn and winter, is also weak.

Despite falling gas prices, industrial consumption of the fuel is not taking off, although it is possible that large industrial energy consumers wait for a further drop in gas prices, analysts say.  

Further price declines could put a floor under prices as more power plants could switch to gas from coal, Goldman Sachs said earlier this week.

“This substitution process can work as a temporary floor to gas prices until industrial demand and Asia LNG imports start to improve more visibly, which in our view will ultimately pull gas prices higher into late-summer,” Goldman’s analysts wrote in a note carried by Bloomberg. 

The near-term outlook on natural gas prices in Europe looks bearish. But things could swiftly turn if demand spikes in summer heatwaves with low wind speeds that could cripple wind power generation. Industrial customers could also start using more gas if prices continue to fall, ultimately supporting the prices. A recovery in Asian demand for LNG could also result in higher European prices as Europe will have to compete with Asia for spot cargoes.